After a sales forecast has been created, you can review the sales predictions in the Forecast tab, and make adjustments based on your business judgement and knowledge of external factors. For example, if you are planning a category promotion and you know from historical experience that such a promotion will yield a 10% increase in sales, it would be prudent to account for that in your forecast and subsequent replenishment plans.
Or, if you plan to gradually discontinue stocking a product, you can force the forecast of a particular stock to go to zero over the course of 6 months. Adjustments can be done by Percent, by Units, by Absolute Value, and by copying the forecast from another SKU.
Adjusting by Percent
To adjust the forecast, first select either a SKU, or a category. Here we have selected a particular SKU:
- Click on the Adjust button to open the Adjust Forecast screen.
- In the “Previous” row, select the months that you wish to adjust. If you do not select months, the adjustments will apply to all months.
- In the “Adjust By Percent” tab, specify the numerical percentage to increase the forecasts by. To decrease forecast, use a negative percentage.
- Optionally, put a comment in the adjustment so that you can recall why the adjustment was made.
- Finally, click on Apply adjustments to complete the procedure.
In the example below, we have increased the original forecast for months November through February by 10%.
Adjusting by Units
- Following the same steps above, open the Adjust Forecast dialog and use click on the “Adjust By Units” tab.
- Specify the number of units (quantity) to increase the forecast by. To decrease the forecast, enter a negative number. Click on RUN Formula to see the results.
- You can also adjust the values in each month manually.
In the example below, we have increased the original forecast for months July through October by a quantity of 10.
Adjusting by Absolute Value
- In the “Absolute Values” tab, specify the exact quantity of the forecasts for the selected months.
- NOTE: If no months are selected, then the formula will be run against all months.
Copying a Forecast
You may have a new product that has no history. In order to forecast for that, you can copy the forecast from another SKU, or even from another category.
- In the Adjust Forecast dialog, Select the “Copy” Tab.
- The Previous, Adjusted, and Forecast To Copy values are plotted.
- In the SKU hierarchy, find the SKU or category to copy a forecast from.
- Specify the amount (up to 100%) of the forecast to copy.
- Click on RUN to see the results.
- Once you are happy with the results, “Apply” the adjustments.
In the example below, the SKU, “Dunkel Weizen 1/6 BBL” has no history, and would have a zero forecast. In order to plan stock replenishment, we know that this type of SKU historically achieves about 20% of the sales of the category, Unchained Series.
To reflect that, we copy 20% of the forecast for Unchained Series into this SKU:
You can see the history of adjustments made to a particular SKU or category by clicking on the History button.
Adjustments which are done at a category level are distributed to lower levels proportionally, using the forecasted sales for each item in the lower levels. This occurs for as many levels as are below the adjusted forecast. For example:
|Smart Phone Category||100|
If the forecast for the Smart Phone category is changed to 200, the result will be :
|Original Forecast||New Forecast|
|Smart Phone Category||100||200 (adjusted)|
All adjustments are rolled up into higher levels – an increase of 100 units in May for a particular SKU will increase the ALL Sales forecast in May, by exactly 100 units.